Book review: “Strangers to ourselves” by Timothy Wilson

“We take in 11,000,000 pieces of information a second, but can process only 40 of them consciously” – so what happens to the remaining 11 million minus 40 pieces? Well, they are processed by the unconscious mind. And we are not even aware of the filtering, selection and judgements happening within our mind all the time. This invisible entity – Adaptive unconscious – is the hero of the book “Strangers to ourselves: Discovering the adaptive unconscious” by Timothy Wilson. If you have read Daniel Kahneman’s “Thinking, fast and slow” then you are familiar with the hero already (Kahneman calls it system-1). However, I still enjoyed reading “Strangers to ourselves” because of its lucid style and fresh narratives.

The two core questions the book explores are: (1) Why is it that people often don’t know themselves very well? and; (2) How can they increase their self-knowledge? I feel that the book does a good job of answering these questions, particularly question-1.

When we returned to India in 1998 after a seven year stay in the US, it was customary to be asked, “Why did you come back?” I soon realized that my answers are not consistent and varied depending upon the situation, mood etc. When I asked myself this question, I realized that I didn’t know the real answer. Thanks to this book, I now know that it is not that uncommon to not know the reason behind your behaviour/action. The unconscious (intuition) takes the decision, the conscious (rational) mind creates stories that justifies the decision – which are sometimes not consistent. Jonathan Haidt calls this “The emotional dog and its rational tail” (see Haidt’s interview).

The main reason why we don’t know ourselves very well is that much of what we want to know about ourselves resides outside of conscious awareness.  So who is really in control of our life anyway – conscious mind or the unconscious mind? Consciousness as the CEO metaphor says that consciousness is in charge of major decisions and the unconscious mind reports to it. On the other extreme, consciousness is treated more like a child who “plays” a video game at an arcade without putting any money into it. He moves the controls unaware that he is seeing the demo program that is independent of his actions. The truth lies somewhere in between. The unconscious mind scans the environment quickly and detects patterns especially those that might pose a danger. The conscious mind provides a check-and-balance to speed and efficiency of the unconscious and plans about the future.

What is the implication? Let’s take the example of sexual aggression – a topic of attention in India due to several reports of rapes in the last few years. Wilson says that men likely to engage in sexual aggression are unaware that they have a nonconscious association between sex and power and unaware that this association is triggered automatically. This lack of awareness makes it more difficult to prevent sexual aggression.

Wilson gives an interesting example of how a real estate agent finds out the kind of house her clients want. When she meets with her clients for the first time, she listens patiently as they describe their preferences, nodding her sympathetically. Many people have a long list of things they would have prepared before they visit the agent. Then the agent ignores everything the clients just said. And she takes them to a wide variety of houses including type of houses which her clients told them they would never consider. On these initial visits she observes the clients’ emotional reaction. Based on that she infers what her clients really like.

What is the best use of consciousness? According to Wilson, perhaps the best use of consciousness is to put ourselves in situations in which our adaptive unconscious can work smoothly. Could this be the task carried out by my conscious mind when we returned to India? I don’t know.

Related article:

Thinking, fast and slow: A landmark book in intuitive thinking and decision making, my book review, Feb 22, 2012.

Killing an idea: Lessons from the destruction of Nalanda University

When Muhammad Bakhtiar Khilji set ablaze Nalanda University in the winter of 1193-94, he wouldn’t have guessed that he was uprooting the idea of “university” itself from the Indian subcontinent. It would take another 600 years before the idea of university got seeded in India again. It has been a couple of weeks since our visit to the ruins of Nalanda, but I still can’t get over the 600 years long burial. Is it really fair to hold Muhammad Bakhtiar responsible for the “killing”? History tells us that it is not. Then what else is responsible for the prolonged hibernation of the concept of college? Let’s see in this article.

Nalanda was established in 5^th century and at its peak had 10,000 students and 1,000 teachers. For centuries it had been the most important seat of learning in Asia. It had three multi-storied libraries. Most of what we know of Nalanda comes from the travel accounts of the Chinese pilgrim and scholar Xuanzhang who spent a couple of years at Nalanda. Xuanzhang studied logic, grammar, Sanskrit and Yogacara school of Buddhism during his time at Nalanda. 

Nalanda is about 90km from Patna and we reached there by car in less than two hours. Archaeological Survey of India has done a good job in maintaining the site as well as the museum next to it. Our guide at Nalanda was a sixty year old gentleman and in this business for over four decades. He had picked up Japanese and was enthusiastic about his forty-five minute tour of the place. His version of the story of the destruction of Nalanda had an interesting twist. According to his story, when Bakhtiar arrived near Nalanda he asked the locals if this place had any loot. The Brahmins were prompt to point out that the place had something far more important than the loot and strongly advised him to destroy it. Apparently the smoke from the burning manuscripts hung for days.

If the act of commission – burning the place down – was an important cause of Nalanda’s destruction, an equally if not more important cause was the act of omission by Brahmins. Historian Charles Allen writes following in his book, “Ashoka: The search for India’s lost emperor” – The most striking evidence of Brahmanical hostility towards Buddhism comes in the form of silence: the way in which India’s Buddhist history, extending over large parts of the country and lasting for many centuries, was excised from the historical record.

Do you want to kill an idea? You can, of course, try to shoot it down by sheer power like Bakhtiar Khilji. Alternately, you can silently ignore it as if it doesn’t exist like the Brahmins. Neither approach is foolproof though. You never know when a Xuanzhang would escape and start spreading the word in a different corner. 

photo credit: Gauri Dabholkar

Joseph Schumpeter and the principle of indeterminateness

For most of his life, Joseph Schumpeter, the prophet of innovation, was seeking an exact science. It would be a science that would precisely predict the economic developments including innovations. However, Schumpeter’s quest for exact economics ended quietly in the penultimate year of his life in 1948. How did this transformation happen? Let’s look in this article.

“Despite all his pioneering work of integrating other disciplines into economics, Schumpeter in the mid-1940s was still looking for a key to ‘exact economics’ in the sense of a determinate and predictive science”. Thus begins the penultimate chapter (Chapter 27) of Schumpeter’s biography “Prophet of Innovation” written by Thomas McCraw. What, according to Schumpeter, was the key hurdle in creating such an exact science?

One hurdle Schumpeter felt was mathematics. He performed daily exercises in calculus and tried to master advanced techniques such as matrix algebra. In fact, he thought that a new type of mathematics may be needed for the exact science. However, as Schumpeter delved more into the business history, he started discovering a completely different barrier in creating a predictive science.

As Schumpeter studied business history he asked the question – “Who was it that acted, how and why and what may be the effects that may be traced to such actions?” As he analysed various innovations he realized that a creative response which is “outside the range of existing practice” can never be predicted and is therefore indeterminate. He called this insight – Principle of Indeterminateness. He announced the verdict of his quest in his presidential address at the annual meeting of the American Economic Association on December 30, 1948 (see the picture above).

Schumpeter had realized that social location of individuals plays a significant role in shaping their intuition which in turn determines their creative response. In fact, he felt that psychology is at the heart of all social sciences. And he noted with regret that economists did not consult or work with professional psychologists. Instead they preferred to invent their own assumptions about the mental processes of producers, consumers and people in general.

It would take another half a century before a psychologist (Daniel Kahneman) would get a Nobel Prize in Economics. Incidentally, the first cognitive illusion Kahneman would discover – the illusion of validity – would be closely linked to the principle of indeterminateness. Kahneman writes in the chapter titled “The illusion of validity” in his book “Thinking, fast and slow” – The main point is not that people who attempt to predict the future make many errors… it is that the errors of prediction are inevitable because the world is unpredictable.

Is “8 steps to innovation” approach predictive or non-predictive?

“The Black Swan” fame Nassim Taleb calls authors of books with titles such as “8 steps to innovation” charlatans¹. It means people practicing quackery or similar confidence tricks in order to obtain money, fame etc. Taleb has two main objections to n-steps-to-xyz-approach: One, such an approach tends to be predictive in situations which may be inherently non-predictive. Two, it gives positive advice and only positive advice exploiting peoples’ gullibility and sucker-proneness. As a co-author of “8 steps to innovation” I thought, let me reflect on how we fare as charlatans. More specifically, I would like to explore following two questions: Is “8 steps” approach predictive or non-predictive? Does it give positive advice only?

Predictive vs non-predictive approaches:  A predictive approach tries to predict the future and based on the prediction arrives at a response. Imagine you run an educational institute. You may analyse the trends using a predictive approach and come to a conclusion that video-led online learning is going to be an important part of the education system five years from now. As a result, you may decide to explore various platforms available in the market which enable online education.

In an alternate scenario, you may ask yourself, “What do I enjoy doing?” And your answer may be “creating short animation videos”. So you end up creating one-or-two minute videos and upload them on the Internet. Over a few weeks you realize that your videos related to Physics are getting watched more often. Slowly you focus on Physics related animation videos. You narrate this story in one of the parties you attend. A week later you get a call from a guy you met in the party and he offers to sponsor your video series. Your business has started – without predicting anything about the future.

A non-predictive approach has three characteristics: (1) It has means-driven rather than goal oriented action (2) it uses affordable-loss rather than expected return as an evaluation criterion (3) it treats each surprise as a potential sign-post².

8-steps, a soft-predictive approach: Here is how 8-steps approach typically gets used. An organization that has intent to become more innovative does a self-assessment on the 5-levels of innovation maturity. Depending upon its current level, it decides its course of action in terms of building pipeline, improving idea velocity or enhancing batting average. Similarly, it identifies whether the problem primarily that of Rider (lack of direction) or Elephant (lack of motivation / habit). For example, here is how a bunch of managers assessed the situation in their groups using the navigation matrix.

While building the pipeline, the ideas may come as a response to a wave like Big Data (predictive) or it may come from an employee’s passion for data visualization (means-driven, non-predictive). 8-steps approach doesn't prescribe any policy using which ideas should be selected. However, 8-steps approach puts emphasis on low-cost experimentation. This makes 8-steps approach soft-predictive. It suggests that you can start with a prediction but not to take it too seriously. Build confidence only through experimentation.

Negative advice: Step-8 in the 8-step approach is “Margin of safety”. It is only about what can be done so that you don’t get crippled when you fall. Throughout the book, we use the Elephant-Rider model to warn the reader of slippery slopes of our decisions making process.

In summary, 8-steps approach is soft-predictive. It says, “By all means, predict. But don’t take your prediction too seriously. Perform low-cost experiments to validate your assumptions. And make sure you build a margin of safety”

Sources:

1.     Nassim Taleb, “Antifragile: How to live in a world we don’t understand”. Taleb’s quote related to charlatans is at kindle location 5051.

2.     A good source for the comparative study of predictive vs non-predictive approaches to strategy is: “What to do next? The case for non-predictive strategy” by Robert Wiltbank et. al., Strategic Management Journal, vol. 27, 2006, pages 981-998.

3.     Image source: attrition.org

My 3 take-aways from Nassim Taleb’s Antifragile

“What do you do if you cannot predict?” is the title of chapter 13 in Nassim Taleb’s bestseller The Black Swan (TBS). Antifragile expands the 10 page chapter into a 500 page book. I find the question important and its exploration useful in my work on improving innovation effectiveness. And hence I turned to Antifragile.  But I am allergic to fat books, notwithstanding the kindle versions. Fortunately, the essence of the approach to the “What do you do?” question is presented in four of the twenty five chapters (chapter 9 to 12). Rest of the book is about the definition and the importance of antifragile and equally about ranting against Harvard Profs, bankers with black tie, Alan Greenspan and loads of philosophy. It wasn’t difficult to skim and skip through most of it. In this article we look at my 3 take-aways from Antifragile on the “What do you do?” question. But before that let’s look at the definition of antifragile.

What is Antifragile? Wind extinguishes candle and energises fire. Thus fire is benefited from the wind and candle is harmed by the wind.  Anything that has more upside than downside from random events (or certain shocks) is antifragilie. The reverse is fragile. In economic systems, fiscal deficit is a source of fragility and innovation is the source of antifragility. In personal life, corporate employment is fragile (to downturn) while tenured-prof-cum-fiction-writing is antifragile. A bestseller and your life may change.

1. Fragility is measurable, risk is not: Can you predict the chance of you getting fired from your job? No. But can you imagine the consequences of you getting fired? Yes, you can. Fragility is about the potential impact of rare events and not about predicting the occurrence of the events. As we saw in an earlier article, Ken Cox, Technical Manager of the control systems program of Apollo 13, didn’t have the foggiest idea of the probability of command module failure. However, it wasn’t difficult to imagine the consequences of such a failure.

One way to measure fragility is to calculate acceleration of harm due to unit change in something. For example, you may check additional harm from Fukushima reactor when tsunami goes beyond certain level. Similarly, you can check the additional delay in traffic when the number of cars on the road increases by certain percentage. If we detect acceleration of harm, it means the system is fragile.

2. First step is to reduce fragility: Taleb says – the first step towards antifragility consists in decreasing downside rather than increasing upside. To make profits and buy a BMW, it would be a good idea to, first survive. In the movie, Million dollar baby, the boxing coach Frankie (Clint Eastwood) tells Maggie (Hilary Swank) following during a coaching session:

Frankie: You forgot the rule. Now, what is the rule?
Maggie: Keep my left up?
Frankie: Is to protect yourself at all times. Now, what is the rule?
Maggie: Protect myself at all times.
Frankie: Good. Good.

Unfortunately, one can never know all such harmful events or create a full-proof protection. However, one can reduce one’s exposure. For example, adding redundancy helps. Commercial aircrafts have redundancy built into almost all aspects of their design – engines, autopilots, instruments, pumps, generators, air and hydraulic systems, controls etc. Another way to reduce fragility is to keep a system as simple and small as possible.

3. Optionality is the key lever to antifragility: Thales, a Greek philosopher from Miletus in pre-Socratic era (perhaps a contemporary of Buddha), is one of the heroes of Antifragile. According to a story, Thales reserved olive presses ahead of time at a discount. The harvest turned out to be good and Thales rented the presses out at a high price when the demand peaked. What Thales bought was an option – right but not an obligation to use the olive presses. Options which allow you more upside than downside are vectors of antifragility.

In an earlier article we saw how Paul Buchheit spent 6-7 hours building a Gmail prototype involving content-targeted ads. In fact, he himself didn’t believe that the experiment would work. But he didn’t lose much in doing the activity and it led to the most successful business model for his employer – Google. Taleb says that low-cost trial-and-error activity like that of Paul can be seen as the expression of an option. The tricky part is to recognize the favourable outcome.

It was a pleasant surprise to meet Seneca, a Roman philosopher, in Antifragile. Seneca’s method to counter fragility was to go through mental exercises to write-off possessions. So when losses occurred you don’t feel anything. Anything you gain is a bonus! For example, Seneca started his journeys with almost the same belongings he would have if he were shipwrecked – a blanket plus a few things. Taleb calls this antifragility in its purest form. Isn’t that similar to Krishna’s advice of non-attachment to Arjuna?

Image sources: Wikipedia.org and movies.tvguide.com

How smart guys pitched their ideas to Steve Jobs, the prickly perfectionist

Steve Jobs looked at the world in binary mode. Either your idea was shitty or it was fantastic – nothing in between. That made the life difficult for people presenting ideas to him. How did they manage it? What tactics did the smart folks employ to get their ideas accepted? Let’s see in this article. Your boss or reviewer may not be as “binary” as Jobs, but the techniques may still come handy.

Show it privately: This is how Jonathan Ive, the key designer behind iMac, iPod, iPhone and iPad and Steve’s close friend dealt with the situation. Ive and his team were working on multi-touch technology for the MacBook Pro in their spare time. He knew that it could be a game-changer technology. Ive says, “Because Steve is so quick to give an opinion, I don’t show him stuff in front of other people,” Ive recalled. “He might say, ‘This is shit,’ and snuff the idea. I feel that ideas are very fragile, so you have to be tender when they are in development.” Ive demoed the multi-touch idea in a one-on-one meeting. Fortunately, Jobs liked it and said, “This is the future.”

Create a Fine-tune-It-Yourself kit: Chris Espinosa was a Berkeley drop-out and part of Mac development team. On his own he decided to design a calculator for Mac. When he showed the first demo to Jobs, he said, “Well, it’s a start, but basically, it stinks.” Jobs felt that the background color is too dark, buttons are too big etc. Espinosa started to refine the design based on Jobs’ feedback. But with every iteration came more criticism. After a number of iterations, Espinosa got fed up and created a brilliant solution - “The Steve Jobs Roll Your Own Calculator Construction Set”. It allowed Jobs to tweak and personalize the look-and-feel. Jobs spent ten minutes and fine-tuned it to his taste. This design shipped on the Mac and remained the standard for fifteen years.

Quietly disregard the comment and go ahead: During the Mac development, the team desperately needed a 5 ¼ inch hard drive. The one being developed in the Apple corporate office was buggy.  Belleville, head of Mac Engineering team, suggested two options to Jobs. One, sourcing it from Sony,  and two, sourcing a Sony-clone from Alps Electronics, a smaller Japanese supplier. Jobs and Belleville flew to Japan and saw both the products. Jobs thought Alps was great and Sony was shitty. Belleville was appalled as he felt that Alps could not deliver it within the required timeframe. Anyway, Jobs ordered Belleville to cease all work with Sony.

Belleville gave a go ahead to both the companies. One engineer from Sony, Hidetoshi Komoto, would work clandestinely at Mac engineering team. They would hide him whenever Jobs visited. Eventually, Alps folks admitted that they would need eighteen more months for production to start. At that point, Belleville told Jobs that he might have an alternative to the Alps drive ready soon. With a big grin on his face, Jobs said, “You son of a bitch!”

Source: “Steve Jobs” by Walter Isaacson. Jonathan Ives story is on page 468, Espinnosa story is on page 132, Belleville story is on page 145-147. Photo source: wikipedia.org

Practicality of Gandhi’s vision of “education through the hands” today

“The old idea was… the craft was to be taken in hand wholy separately from education. To me, that seems a fatal mistake… The brain should be educated through the hands. Why should you think that the mind is everything and the hands and the feet are nothing?” Mahatma Gandhi said while addressing the teachers gathered in Wardha for a three week training program in February 1939¹. Is this still relevant today? Let’s explore.

Gandhi illustrated his point through the example of hand spinning. He said, “Take the instance of hand-spinning. Unless I know arithmetic, I cannot report how many yards of yarn I have produced on the takli… Take geometry next. What can be a better demonstration than the disc of the takli? I can teach all about the circle in this manner, without even mentioning the name of Euclid.” He said one could teach history through the history of cotton.

Gandhi’s address is more than 70 years old. So let’s first check if the basic claim still holds according to the state-of-the-art research. Nobel Laureate Daniel Kahneman writes in his best seller Thinking, fast and slow, “As cognitive scientists have emphasized in recent years, cognition is embodied; you think with your body, not only with your brain².” For example, when you hold a warm cup of tea, you are more likely to think that the other person at the table is trustworthy after only a brief interaction. So looks like the basic claim still holds.

I feel that a more general principle underlying this vision is related to experiential learning. How do you create opportunities for students to experience the new concept through the body? In my lecture on introduction to design thinking at IIMB last week, each student re-designed a wallet for his/her partner. At the end, everybody prototyped their best idea using craft paper and got it validated from the partner. When students are learning about empathy, they actually interview shopkeeprs, people on the street or whoever is relevant to the topic. Case study method is another form of creating an experience, though it is somewhat weaker than “doing by hand” method.

What about literature? How do you create an experience? One low-cost medium is theatre. When you enact a literary piece, you are creating experiences especially for the participants. However, I am sure there are topics for which it may not be easy to create experiences, say for example, wave functions in Quantum Mechanics?

Gandhi held a strong view on this. He said in the same Wardha address, “I have said that all instruction must be linked with some basic craft. When you are imparting knowledge to a child of 7 or 10 through the medium of an industry, you should, to begin with, exclude all those subjects which cannot be linked with the craft. By doing so from day to day you will discover ways and means of linking with the craft many things which you had excluded in the beginning.” I feel that such exclusion is neither necessary nor practical.

For me the key take-away is this. For every concept that is being taught, I ask, “How can I create an opportunity for the student to experience the concept?”

Source:

1.     Gandhi’s address in Wardha is available online here. Also in “Mahatma: Life of Mohandas Karamchand Gandhi” by D. G. Tendulkar, Volume 5 (1938-1940), The Publications Division, Ministry of Information and Broadcasting, Govt of India, pages 41-43.

2.     Kahneman’s statement is in “Thinking, fast and slow”, page 51.

3.    Photo source: www.mkgandhi.org

Related blog: Your hand is wiser than your head ever gonna be, August 11, 2012