tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9003076573972458673.post1847855365182592086..comments2024-03-28T10:02:12.828+05:30Comments on Catalign Innovation Consulting: Overcoming prediction disability: Applying the black swan wisdom to idea selectionVinay Dabholkarhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02007011866370283276noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9003076573972458673.post-39358238329634449942012-03-24T09:57:01.802+05:302012-03-24T09:57:01.802+05:30In this video, Scott Cook from Intuit presents how...In this video, Scott Cook from Intuit presents how they try to move idea selection away from "Politics and PowerPoint" to "Leadership by experimentation" or more precisely "Decisions by hypothesis validation". Cook says that an important role of a leader is to create an environment where experiments can happen at low-cost and at high speed. And then, as much as possible, run experiments to validate assumptions embedded in ideas. He says he is surprised as to on how many ideas you can run experiments.<br /><br /><a href="http://www.khoslaventures.com/culture-of-experimentation-2/" rel="nofollow">http://www.khoslaventures.com/culture-of-experimentation-2/</a><br /><br />In case you want to jump directly to his "Leadership by experimentation" piece in the video go to 6:40.Vinay Dabholkarhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02007011866370283276noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9003076573972458673.post-91633843960433725482012-03-24T09:43:10.004+05:302012-03-24T09:43:10.004+05:30Some observations:
1. Apollo 13 explosion is tech...Some observations:<br /><br />1. Apollo 13 explosion is technically not a Black Swan. Because a Black Swan event should be "unexpected". Ken Cox and the people he convinced visualized such a possibility and prepared for it. Nassim Taleb calls such an event Grey Swan - rare, high impact but not unexpected.<br /><br />2. On the cost-impact matrix: Is it always possible to visualize the potential impact of success for an idea? In my experience "No". Neither James Watt nor his first two financiers, Prof. Black and Dr. Roebuck, could visualize the potential of Watt's modified engine. It took ten years and a Boulton to say that the engine can be useful to "anything that moves". What Venture Capitalists do is to identify broad trends which they believe are creating high impact and then fund lots of experiments. Boulton was doing something similar: the sector he was betting on was "energy". For more on Watt-Boulton story see <a href="" rel="nofollow">Two experimentation loops in an innovation: story of Watt-Boulton steam engine</a>Vinay Dabholkarhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02007011866370283276noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9003076573972458673.post-56397445646745346452009-01-20T08:56:00.000+05:302009-01-20T08:56:00.000+05:30As mentioned and translate in the matrix the idea ...As mentioned and translate in the matrix the idea to verify and assumption as quick as possible that is for the cheapest cost. The matrix is valid for one identified item and as mentioned the highest disaster in project are due to systemic effect. Based on this the planning method should be adapted to the level of assumptions. An oprating plan will be disastrous for an innivation but an discovery learning plan will help to monitor the unknown.Alainhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17500018665219310346noreply@blogger.com